The Impact of Armed Conflicts on Judicial Behaviour: Evidence from Crimea

Dmitrii Shchetinin (Utrecht University)

Abstract

Judicial objectivity, impartiality, and dispassion are foundational expectations of society in the application of law. However, judges often encounter influences from various legally irrelevant factors. One of these factors is wars. This is the first study finding a causal evidence of the wartime effect on judicial behaviour. Particularly, whether domestic judges resolving international commercial disputes are affected by armed conflicts. I estimate the effect of the Crimea annexation in 2014 on the enforcement of foreign judgments and arbitral awards in Russia and Ukraine. Using a universe of domestic case law from both countries spanning 2009 to 2019, I employ a difference-in-differences design. The results reveal a notable decline of 25-30% in the enforcement rates of Ukrainian judgments and awards in Russia, and reciprocally in Ukraine for Russian decisions, following the annexation.